PHILIPPINES · OPENING DAY · 29 JULY
IT PLAYED. HERE IS THE GATE.
221,488 SEATS SOLD 61.9% OF EVERY SEAT 353 SHOWS SOLD OUT ₱85.8M ESTIMATED GROSS
1,637 showtimes read across 150 cinemas. Every figure is a floor: the last look at a show sits about an hour before it starts.
SAME SHOWTIMES, TWENTY FOUR HOURS APART
HALF AS MUCH AGAIN, BOUGHT ON THE DAY
AT 1AM ADDED ON THE DAY SEATS SOLD 200,253 +49% OCCUPANCY 62.5% +20.5 pts SOLD OUT SHOWS 324 +99% SHOWS 90% OR FULLER 679 +92%
The same 1,434 screenings measured twice. Grey is where each figure stood at 1am, red is what the day itself added: 65,676 more seats, 32.8% of the whole gate.
BUYING RATE, SHARE OF THE GATE PER HOUR
IT SELLS 16x FASTER IN THE LAST HOURS
0.4% 48H 36H 0.6% 36H 24H 0.9% 24H 18H 0.5% 18H 12H 0.5% 12H 9H 0.9% 9H 6H 1.8% 6H 4H 2.9% 4H 3H 4.7% 3H 2H 6.6% 2H 1H 2.6% FINAL HOUR
Per hour, so a twelve hour window and a one hour window compare fairly. Fixed panel of 1,054 showtimes watched from 36h out, so every bar is measured buying.
SHARE OF THE GATE, BY HOURS BEFORE CURTAIN
ONE SEAT IN FIVE GOES IN THE LAST 3 HOURS
3.4% 48H 36H 8.5% 36H 24H 8.2% 24H 18H 3.7% 18H 12H 2.3% 12H 9H 4.6% 9H 6H 5.6% 6H 4H 4.9% 4H 3H 7.5% 3H 2H 9.6% 2H 1H 3.5% FINAL HOUR
A further 38.3% was already gone more than 48 hours out. Windows differ in width, so read the rate panel for pace and this one for totals.
THIS IS A WALK-UP MARKET
ONE SEAT IN FIVE SOLD IN THE LAST 3 HOURS
20.6% IN THE LAST 3 HOURS 31% IN THE LAST 6 HOURS 32.8% IN THE LAST 24 HOURS 45,560 SEATS, LAST 3 HOURS
Measured from the seat maps themselves, not modelled. Anything bought inside the final stretch is on top of this.
SEATS BOUGHT PER HOUR, MANILA TIME
THE BUYING RUNS ALL AFTERNOON
2,297 06 2,632 07 2,632 08 2,632 09 3,072 10 7,656 11 8,655 12 8,807 13 7,911 14 6,624 15 6,923 16 6,622 17 5,843 18 3,110 19 1,608 20 299 21
Peaks at 13:00 and stays heavy to 19:00. It falls away late only because there is less left on sale, not because buying stops.
SEATS PER HOUR, PER SCREENING STILL ON SALE
PER SCREEN, THE PEAK IS DINNER TIME
1.6 06 1.9 07 1.9 08 1.9 09 2.2 10 6.1 11 7.7 12 8.9 13 9.0 14 8.9 15 11.4 16 13.4 17 15.9 18 14.8 19 13.1 20
Correcting for how much inventory is left, the hardest selling hour of the day is 18:00.
EVERY OPENING-DAY SHOWTIME, BY HOW FULL IT GOT
766 SHOWS FINISHED 90% FULL OR MORE
353 SOLD OUT 413 90-99% 112 80-90% 95 70-80% 188 50-70% 247 25-50% 223 1-25% 6 ZERO SOLD
That is 47% of the board. 353 of them were flat sold out.
HOW MANY SHOWTIMES CLEARED EACH BAR
THE 90% CLUB ALMOST DOUBLED
AT 1AM ADDED ON THE DAY 50%+ 1,032 +43% 70%+ 867 +55% 80%+ 780 +68% 90%+ 679 +92% SOLD OUT 324 +99%
Same 1,434 screenings measured twice. Grey is where each bar stood at 1am, red is where it closed.
OCCUPANCY BY TIME OF DAY
LATE NIGHT WENT FROM 56% TO 90%
AT 1AM ADDED ON THE DAY MORNING 28% ➔ 34% +6.5 pts EARLY AFTERNOON 36% ➔ 53% +17.2 pts LATE AFTERNOON 43% ➔ 66% +23 pts EVENING 52% ➔ 78% +25.8 pts LATE NIGHT 56% ➔ 90% +33.8 pts
Morning barely moved. The later the show, the more of it was bought on the day itself.
OCCUPANCY BY CHAIN
ROBINSONS SOLD MORE THAN HALF ON THE DAY
AT 1AM ADDED ON THE DAY SM 46% ➔ 64% 27.8% late ROBINSONS 21% ➔ 48% 55.6% late AYALA MALLS 57% ➔ 76% 25.5% late POWER PLANT 44% ➔ 70% 37.6% late VISTA 29% ➔ 73% 60.2% late FISHER MALL 34% ➔ 51% 33.9% late
The right column is the share of a chain whole gate bought inside the final 24 hours. Robinsons was never soft; it is a walk-up circuit.
EVERY FILM ON SALE, WHOLE CINEMA, 1AM TO CLOSE
THE CINEMAS THAT ADDED THE MOST ON THE DAY
AT 1AM ADDED ON THE DAY SM MEGAMALL 30% ➔ 47% +2,674 SM CITY CLARK 21% ➔ 41% +2,152 ROBINSONS GALLERIA ORTIGAS 20% ➔ 50% +1,836 POWER PLANT 44% ➔ 67% +1,636 SM SEASIDE CITY CEBU 22% ➔ 37% +1,493 SM CITY MANILA 15% ➔ 28% +1,305 AYALA TRINOMA 53% ➔ 69% +1,234 SM MALL OF ASIA 60% ➔ 77% +1,233 ROBINSONS GALLERIA CEBU 10% ➔ 57% +1,160 ROBINSONS STARMILLS 4% ➔ 52% +1,146 SM CITY LUCENA 20% ➔ 37% +1,138 ROBINSONS LAS PINAS 16% ➔ 56% +1,137 SM CITY BACOLOD 13% ➔ 30% +1,121 ROBINSONS MANILA 25% ➔ 40% +1,102 SM CITY FAIRVIEW 63% ➔ 83% +1,058
The fifteen sites that added the most seats between 1am and the close, across all films at each cinema. Bars are seats, the label is occupancy. Both count only the showtimes on sale at BOTH moments, so a cinema that added screenings during the day cannot dilute its own occupancy.
THE TEN BUSIEST CINEMAS ON OPENING DAY
SM MEGAMALL SOLD 6,330 SEATS
AT 1AM ADDED ON THE DAY SM MEGAMALL 6,330 +60% AYALA TRINOMA 5,800 +48% SM CITY NORTH EDSA 5,089 +31% POWER PLANT 4,553 +46% SM CITY FAIRVIEW 4,388 +33% SM MALL OF ASIA 4,166 +32% SM CITY CLARK 4,076 +88% AYALA MALLS MANILA BAY 3,695 +21% SM SEASIDE CITY CEBU 3,542 +66% SM CDO DOWNTOWN PREMIER 3,519 +38%
Seats sold on 29 July alone. Grey is the 1am position, red is the close, blue is the growth between them.
THE TEN BUSIEST SINGLE SCREENS
ONE ROOM SOLD 2,479 SEATS
AT 1AM ADDED ON THE DAY AYALA TRINOMA TR Cinema 7 2,479 SM CITY DASMARINAS Cinema 1 1,990 1 SM MEGAMALL Cinema 3 1,932 1 ROBINSONS GALLERIA ORTIGAS Cinema 5 1,526 38 SM CITY BACOOR Cinema 1 1,382 12 SM CITY BAGUIO Cinema 4 1,357 SM CITY LIPA Cinema 3 1,327 9 SM CITY BAGUIO Cinema 2 1,325 4 SM SEASIDE CITY CEBU Large Screen Format 1,318 2 AYALA GLORIETTA GL Cinema 5 1,307 3
Opening day only. The arrow is how far each room moved in the national screen table between 1am and the close; a bar means it held its place.
WHEN EACH SOLD-OUT SHOW FIRST HIT CAPACITY
36% SOLD OUT IN THE LAST 3 HOURS
109 48H+ 61 24-48H 28 12-24H 43 6-12H 58 3-6H 95 1-3H 70 FINAL HOUR
Hours before curtain. Resolution is limited by the roughly 80 minute gap between sweeps.
THE REST OF THE RUN, SAME 24 HOURS
THE WEEKEND KEPT BUILDING WHILE IT PLAYED
AT 1AM ADDED ON THE DAY THU 30 70,601 +33% FRI 31 70,965 +18% SAT 1 102,065 +19% SUN 2 68,422 +16% MON 3 12,621 +14% TUE 4 8,335 +13%
Grey is what each day held at 1am, red is where it stood at the close. Saturday 1 August is at 37.2% with 118 shows already sold out.
FROM WHAT WE MEASURED TO WHAT THE COUNTRY ACTUALLY DID
OPENING DAY NEAR 331K SEATS
WHAT WE READ seat maps, opening day 221,488 PLUS THE LAST HOUR we stop looking before curtain 250,966 PLUS SHOWS WE COULD NOT SEE scheduled, no seat map 309,124 PLUS CINEMAS OFF THE GRID no online booking, assumed 330,763 OUR ESTIMATE BEFORE IT PLAYED 262,440 NOW, WITH THE WHOLE CIRCUIT 318,398 TO 346,219 ESTIMATED GROSS ₱123.4M TO ₱134.2M
Each step adds something we could not read directly. The seat counts stand; the gross on this panel does not, because it prices every seat at list and then grosses up on top. See the reconciliation panel for the corrected chain against the published national figure.
WHERE THE NEXT FOUR DAYS LAND
SATURDAY IS THE BIGGEST DAY STILL TO COME
BOOKED NOW PROJECTED RANGE THU 30 1,729 SHOWS 114,147 TO 135,625 NOW 77,359 FRI 31 1,493 SHOWS 119,338 TO 143,689 NOW 75,555 SAT 1 1,411 SHOWS 165,467 TO 208,894 NOW 108,917 SUN 2 1,366 SHOWS 114,938 TO 139,209 NOW 72,498
Two independent methods: this film's own completion curve, and scaling each day off opening day at the same lead. Saturday lands at 58.1% to 65.9% occupancy, under opening day's 70.1%, but on more seats than any other day left.
EVERY FILM PLAYING IN THE COUNTRY THAT DAY
SPIDER-MAN TOOK 93.4% OF EVERY SEAT SOLD
FILM SEATS SOLD OCC EST. GROSS SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY 221,488 61.9% ₱85.8M THE ODYSSEY 11,511 13.9% ₱6.9M MOANA 1,938 4.1% ₱706,213 THE CONVENIENCE STORE 1,428 4.1% ₱382,198 EVIL DEAD BURN 421 8.0% ₱146,295 TOY STORY 5 238 7.7% ₱113,780 THE OTHER FIVE FILMS, ADDED UP 15,536 8.9% ₱8.2M FOR SCALE: OPENING DAY GROSS AS REPORTED OUTSIDE FIGURES, NOT OUR MEASUREMENT SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY, 29 JUL 2026 ₱95.9M AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR, 2018 ₱141.6M AVENGERS: ENDGAME, 24 APR 2019 ₱205.7M
Six films were on the board. The whole circuit sold 237,024 seats and took an estimated ₱94.0M at list prices; Spider-Man was 93.4% of the seats and 91.3% of the money.
ESTIMATED GROSS BY BRANCH, OPENING DAY
TRINOMA TOOK ₱3.0M
TRINOMA ₱3.0M SM MEGAMALL ₱2.6M POWER PLANT CINEMA ₱2.2M SM MALL OF ASIA ₱2.0M SM CITY NORTH EDSA ₱1.9M SM CITY FAIRVIEW ₱1.9M AYALA MALLS MANILA BAY ₱1.7M SM SEASIDE CITY CEBU ₱1.4M SM CITY CLARK ₱1.4M AYALA CENTER CEBU ₱1.4M GLORIETTA ₱1.3M SM CDO DOWNTOWN PREMIER ₱1.2M AYALA MALLS CIRCUIT ₱1.2M SM CITY BAGUIO ₱1.2M GALLERIA ORTIGAS ₱1.2M
The fifteen biggest earners of 150 measured branches. Red are the five the distributor also published.
THE ONLY EXTERNAL CHECK THAT EXISTS
THE COUNTRY'S TOP TWENTY, AGAINST OURS
PUBLISHED BY COLUMBIA OUR ESTIMATE 1. SM MEGAMALL OUR RANK 2 · 95% ₱2.6M ₱2.8M 2. AYALA MALLS CINEMAS TRINOMA OUR RANK 1 · 119.8% ₱3.0M ₱2.5M 3. POWER PLANT CINEMA OUR RANK 3 · 88.5% ₱2.2M ₱2.5M 4. SM NORTH EDSA OUR RANK 5 · 98.6% ₱1.9M ₱1.9M 5. SM FAIRVIEW OUR RANK 6 · 97.5% ₱1.9M ₱1.9M 6. SM MALL OF ASIA OUR RANK 4 · 123.3% ₱2.0M ₱1.7M 7. AYALA MALLS CINEMAS MANILA BAY OUR RANK 7 · 113.8% ₱1.7M ₱1.5M 8. GATEWAY CINEPLEX 18 CINEMA NO SEAT MAP, WE CANNOT SEE IT NOT MEASURABLE ₱1.4M 9. SM SEASIDE CEBU OUR RANK 8 · 104.4% ₱1.4M ₱1.4M 10. ROBINSONS GALLERIA CINEMA OUR RANK 15 · 92.6% ₱1.2M ₱1.3M 11. ROBINSONS ANTIPOLO CINEMA OUR RANK 18 · 93.1% ₱1.1M ₱1.2M 12. AYALA MALLS CINEMAS GLORIETTA OUR RANK 11 · 108.8% ₱1.3M ₱1.2M 13. AYALA MALLS CINEMAS CEBU OUR RANK 10 · 122.8% ₱1.4M ₱1.1M 14. AYALA MALLS CINEMAS CIRCUIT OUR RANK 13 · 110.8% ₱1.2M ₱1.1M 15. SM MANILA OUR RANK 20 · 95.9% ₱1.0M ₱1.1M 16. SM TAYTAY OUR RANK 76 · 42.6% ₱440,650 ₱1.0M 17. SM CDO DOWNTOWN OUR RANK 12 · 121.2% ₱1.2M ₱1.0M 18. SM BAGUIO OUR RANK 14 · 123% ₱1.2M ₱971,516 19. SM DASMARINAS OUR RANK 17 · 123.4% ₱1.1M ₱918,416 20. SM LANANG OUR RANK 39 · 80.1% ₱727,610 ₱908,157
Columbia Pictures published all twenty opening-day location grosses. Pale bars are the two we missed by more than 25%. Everything else in this report is unaudited; this is the one place our seat maps meet reported box office.
HOW CLOSE DID WE ACTUALLY GET
WE GET THE ORDER RIGHT BEFORE THE LEVEL
WITHIN 10% 8 OF 19 WITHIN 20% 13 OF 19 WITHIN 30% 18 OF 19 MEDIAN ABSOLUTE ERROR 11.5% MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR 15.1% RANK CORRELATION 0.86 MEDIAN RANK ERROR 2 PLACE
Nineteen of the published twenty are measurable; Gateway is not. A rank correlation of 0.86 with a median rank error of two places, on a median gross error of 11.5%: the ranking is far more trustworthy than any single peso figure.
OPENING DAY GROSS, 29 JULY 2026
OUR ESTIMATE AGAINST THE REPORTED TOTAL
REPORTED WHAT WE CAN SEE 221,488 SEATS READ FROM CINEMA SEAT MAPS ₱85.8M($1.40M) -10.5% VS REPORTED OUR ESTIMATE THOSE SEATS CARRIED TO CLOSING TIME, PLUS THE CINEMAS WE CANNOT READ ₱102.8M($1.67M) +7.2% VS REPORTED REPORTED BY COLUMBIA THE DISTRIBUTOR'S OWN FIGURE FOR EVERY CINEMA IN THE COUNTRY ₱95.9M($1.56M) NOT INDEPENDENTLY AUDITED
Nothing on the left borrows from the figure on the right, so the gap is a real test of the method rather than a fit to it. Dollar figures converted at PHP 61.41, the peso close on 29 July 2026.
